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The collapse of complex systems
Apr. 14th, 2010 05:46 pmhttp://www.shirky.com/weblog/2010/04/the-collapse-of-complex-business-models/ .
Although Clay Shirky is talking about business models (illustrated by the effect that the internet dropping the cost of producing & distributing content has had on big media) the underlying theory comes from the collapse of civilisations.
The nub is that increasing complexity eventually leads to diminishing returns, until either the system takes a step to far and starts losing more than it's putting in, or an environmental constraint changes and the system is unable to react.
I think this principle applies strongly to how we're dealing (or not, more to the point) with climate change. We need to simplify our impact on the environment deliberately and urgently, or have catastrophic change forced on us by environmental collapse. Modern civilisation is a global complex society made up of a complicated mess of nations (complex societies) and international corporations (also complex societies).
We're screwed.
~~~
Another quote I liked, just 'cos
Although Clay Shirky is talking about business models (illustrated by the effect that the internet dropping the cost of producing & distributing content has had on big media) the underlying theory comes from the collapse of civilisations.
The nub is that increasing complexity eventually leads to diminishing returns, until either the system takes a step to far and starts losing more than it's putting in, or an environmental constraint changes and the system is unable to react.
When the value of complexity turns negative, a society plagued by an inability to react remains as complex as ever, right up to the moment where it becomes suddenly and dramatically simpler, which is to say right up to the moment of collapse. Collapse is simply the last remaining method of simplification.
I think this principle applies strongly to how we're dealing (or not, more to the point) with climate change. We need to simplify our impact on the environment deliberately and urgently, or have catastrophic change forced on us by environmental collapse. Modern civilisation is a global complex society made up of a complicated mess of nations (complex societies) and international corporations (also complex societies).
We're screwed.
~~~
Another quote I liked, just 'cos
Bureaucracies temporarily suspend the Second Law of Thermodynamics. In a bureaucracy, it’s easier to make a process more complex than to make it simpler, and easier to create a new burden than kill an old one.
