Aug. 15th, 2011

marsden_online: (Blueknight)
I'm pretty much just going to work though the sections until I get tired of reading, jotting down my thoughts.

The Big Picture
Nothing much extra comes to mind over the introduction/big picture that I don't expect to be commenting on later, until we get to Implementation where it starts talking about who/how the projects in the plan will be paid for. The most concrete part of this section is in identifying the "catalyst projects" the council plans to be take the lad in paying for - ie "public investment". While it is expected that "private investment" will be 10x that the details about where this is actually going to come from ... feel hollow. Blather about "incentives" and "leadership".

This document probably isn't the place to list the private projects which are no doubt already being planned, but I would feel better if that information was available somewhere.

Guiding Principles
Five principles were defined to draft the plan
- Foster business investment
- Respect for the Past
- A long term view of the future
- Easy to get around
- Vibrant central city living

I don't know if the order they are presented in the draft is reflective of their relevant importance (doubtless the official position is that they are all equally important) but to my mind "A long term view of the future" expresses something that people really need to get their heads around. The timeline in the plan itself covers about 20 years - the foreseeable future really. I do expect that within my lifetime we will get to the point where construction and development stops containing an element of "rebuild".
But what is being put in place here will shape Christchurch for another 100 years or more (barring sinking into the ocean), just as Christchurch to date has been shaped by street plans laid out in 1850, or by the brick buildings erected around the turn of the 20th century (there is a nice potted history on pages 17-20).

The way ahead
This section lays out the process of finalising the plan and work which is ongoing - eg further analysis. It also contains this section which describes the largest short-term hurdle to getting started...
Insurance
Insurance companies and their reinsurers are facing what they describe as “unprecedented events” and Canterbury’s earthquake risk level remains a real concern to the insurance industry. The primary issue revolves around the level of ongoing seismic activity to the extent there is no appetite for insurers to take on new risk (i.e. risk they do not currently have). This has a significant impact on rebuilding with little (if any) ability to secure insurance for these projects. The banking industry is wanting certainty that standard insurance cover, including earthquake cover, is in place at the outset of a project. This issue is well known at all levels including central government and is a significant risk factor that could impact on delivery of the Plan.

Money is available from non-bank sources for the public works, although I wonder if projects are legally required to have insurance before they can start. That might require careful use of those law-rewriting powers the minister has.
But unless there is a developer out there with deep pockets and a willingness to take the risk, that vital private investment could be slow in coming. Or a bank willing to cut some slack - it can be assumed that the international re-insurers won't cut any, but our internationally owned banks are mostly based in Australia and might be a little friendlier.

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